January Boom is Not Guaranteed: Lessons for US Gyms from 2024’s Flat Start

For gyms across the United States, January is more than just the first month of the year - it’s a crucial period when new memberships typically surge, driven by the wave of New Year’s resolutions and a renewed focus on health and fitness.

This month has long been seen as the industry’s 'prime time', a pivotal moment when gyms have the chance to secure the bulk of new memberships that help meet their Q1 goals and set a strong tone for the entire year.

However, January 2024 proved unexpectedly flat, and major gym chains that had typically benefited from this seasonal boost faced a disappointing reality: foot traffic at many of the top US gyms remained stagnant compared to the previous year. According to a Bloomberg article, this slump contrasted sharply with the prior January growth rates of over 40% seen in both 2022 and 2023. For an industry that relies heavily on the January rush, these numbers are more than a hiccup - they’re a warning.

For gyms that count on this January traffic to reach Q1 targets, a slow start could mean scrambling to make up ground throughout the year. Let's explore why this downturn happened and, more importantly, offer actionable strategies that gyms can implement now to avoid a similar fate in January 2025.

Key Takeaways from 2024’s January Slump

Factors such as adverse winter weather, rising competition, and price sensitivity among consumers all contributed to stagnant foot traffic at major chains. For instance, budget-friendly Planet Fitness, often a bellwether for the industry, reported a lackluster month despite its typical January membership gains. “Planet Fitness…is on track for its second-worst quarterly sales growth since the pandemic,” reported Fortune.com, underlining the financial strain faced by gyms counting on high traffic, and come the end of Q1 revised all of its growth projections for the year, downwards.

The impact extended beyond Planet Fitness, with boutique chain Xponential Fitness also grappling with slower revenue growth projections. In fact while they went on to achieve year-on-year revenue growth of 12% for Q1, 2024 was the first year since 2020 in which Xponential Fitness experienced a fall in revenue vs Q4 of the previous year.

The lesson for 2025 is clear: January’s traffic surge is no longer a given. Instead of depending on seasonal influxes, gyms need to adopt a strategic approach and prepare proactively, ensuring steady growth even if industry trends shift.

To mitigate the risk of an underwhelming January, gyms consider two major elements of their strategy.

Firstly, they should implement year-round marketing and member acquisition strategies. By focusing on continuous lead generation and retention efforts, they can maintain a steady flow of new members and reduce dependency on January alone, creating a more resilient, adaptable business model.

Secondly, even if January (or any other busy period) falls short of expectations, it is not enough to have relied solely on the increased volume of interest. It's also essential to take action to improve how much of that interest your facility can turn into action. By improving this ratio then, there still exists a clear route to growth no matter the external factors.

Proactive Strategies Gyms Can Implement Now for January 2025 Success

1. Early Marketing and Engagement Campaigns
To build momentum before the New Year, gyms should kick off targeted marketing as early as November. Campaigns can and undoubtedly will use “New Year, New You” messaging or some variation on that theme, but don't neglect to appeal to those eager to start early on their fitness goals. A multi-channel approach - email, social media, SMS, WhatsApp - ensures broad reach, while community-building content fosters a supportive environment for prospective members. For example, sharing success stories and practical fitness tips can make prospects feel encouraged and valued. This proactive strategy helps maintain top-of-mind awareness, making it more likely that potential members choose your gym when January arrives.

2. Competitive Pricing and Value Offers
Strategically designed pricing and membership offers can differentiate a gym from its competitors. To stand out, gyms should review and refresh their packages - it's not about a race to the bottom, but you need to know where you stand vs. the competition, and what sets you apart. Offer extra value without discounting by including special new-joiner bundles, or personal training add-ons. Testing different pricing strategies in advance allows gyms to fine-tune their approach, ensuring offers provide clear value. For example, a free month of premium classes or access to exclusive benefits during the first month can be enticing. This approach addresses the price sensitivity highlighted in 2024’s January slump and reinforces the gym’s value proposition in a crowded market.

3. Host Open Houses or Community Events in December
Hosting open houses, free trial days, or health workshops in December is an excellent way to engage potential members. These events give locals a no-pressure opportunity to experience the gym’s environment and offerings firsthand. Interactive activities, like sample classes or fitness assessments, add excitement and encourage participation. For those who attend, exclusive sign-up discounts for January memberships can provide a compelling reason to commit early. By establishing positive connections through these community events, gyms create a warm and welcoming atmosphere that prospective members remember when choosing a gym in the New Year.

Differentiation Tactics to Outperform Competitors in a Slow January

Leverage Community and Brand Loyalty
Building a loyal community sets gyms apart, especially during slow months. Engage current members regularly through events, social media groups, and loyalty rewards. A strong sense of belonging enhances member satisfaction, increasing retention and creating positive word-of-mouth referrals that can attract new members organically.

Targeted Digital Advertising and Retargeting
Digital advertising allows gyms to stay visible and top-of-mind, even during slower seasons. Invest in ads targeting recent website visitors, social media followers, and those who’ve attended past events. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and Google Ads offer refined targeting tools to help reach those most likely to join. Tailor ad copy to emphasize the supportive, community-driven experience your gym provides, setting you apart from competitors. Effective retargeting can remind potential members why your facility offers more than just a place to work out - it’s a community they’ll want to join.

Focus on High-Quality Onboarding and Retention
A positive onboarding experience is crucial for member retention. Provide personalized guidance to new members, such as an introductory fitness assessment, tailored recommendations, and consistent follow-ups in their first month. Exclusive perks for long-term commitment, such as premium class access or discounts on personal training, can help foster loyalty. When new members feel genuinely supported, they’re more likely to commit and stay long-term, reinforcing the gym’s value and improving retention rates well beyond January.

How Keepme Antares' AI Sales Agents Can Help Gyms Get Ahead

The Value of Real-Time Engagement
Fitness is competitive, and timely responses to membership inquiries are crucial, especially during high-traffic months like January. Keepme’s AI Sales Agents provide 24/7 lead engagement, ensuring that every inquiry receives a quick and personalized response. This constant availability eliminates the common delays that can frustrate potential members, who may lose interest or seek out a competitor if they don’t hear back promptly.

By creating an instant connection, Keepme Antares help gyms make a positive first impression, establishing trust and increasing the likelihood that interested leads will follow through with a membership. For prospective members, receiving a real-time response makes the process feel seamless and personalized, enhancing their initial experience with your brand.

Automated Nurturing for Better Conversion
Antares excels at nurturing leads by automating follow-ups and providing a structured engagement process for each prospect. After an initial inquiry, the AI can schedule personalized follow-up messages, guiding prospects through the decision-making journey in a way that feels natural and attentive.

From answering questions to scheduling facility tours, Antares helps prospects move closer to signing up. With AI handling this journey, gyms capture more leads and maintain high engagement with minimal effort from their in-house teams, and simply get more tours and trials to their doorsteps.

Impact on Operational Efficiency
Operational efficiency is critical for any gym, and Keepme’s AI Sales Agents allow teams to focus on high-touch, in-person tasks by managing routine inquiries and interactions. By automating these initial touchpoints, the AI reduces the burden on staff, freeing them up to conduct tours, close deals with high-interest prospects, and provide hands-on support to current members. For gyms preparing for January, this efficiency boost means they can handle increased inquiry volumes without additional staffing, maximizing both new member acquisition and staff productivity.

Establishing a Strong Start, Regardless of Industry Trends

Scenario Planning for High and Low-Traffic Outcomes
Successful January performance requires preparation for both high-traffic and low-traffic scenarios. By planning for both possibilities, gyms can remain agile, making the most of whatever member turnout the season brings.

For a high-traffic scenario and in the absence of an AI agent, consider increasing staffing levels, extending hours, and preparing additional onboarding materials to accommodate more inquiries and new members efficiently.

For a low-traffic scenario, the focus should shift to maximizing lead conversion through targeted outreach and personalized follow-ups, ensuring every inquiry receives attention. Scenario planning also involves tracking early indicators - such as website inquiries, social media engagement, and pre-January memberships - to help determine which scenario is more likely to unfold. By anticipating both outcomes, gyms can swiftly allocate resources to meet actual demand, regardless of external trends.

Setting Realistic, Data-Driven January Goals
Setting achievable, data-backed goals is key to navigating January’s uncertainties and ensuring progress, even in unexpected circumstances. Gyms should analyze historical January data, taking into account previous year-on-year performance, local economic conditions, and relevant industry trends. Using these insights, gyms can establish goals that are both ambitious and grounded in reality, avoiding the pitfalls of overly optimistic targets.

Additionally, data-driven goal setting allows for real-time adjustments - if traffic patterns suggest lower turnout, gyms can shift focus to member retention and increased engagement with existing members to compensate. This adaptable, evidence-based approach creates a roadmap for success, providing a steady foundation for meeting Q1 targets even if January’s results differ from expectations.

Strategic Preparation for a Strong 2025 Start

As January’s critical role in the gym industry continues to evolve, a successful start to 2025 requires more than just waiting for the New Year’s traffic boost. Gyms must engage in strategic planning, proactive marketing, and a sharp focus on standing out from competitors. In a shifting landscape, with growing competition and unpredictable consumer behavior, adopting a prepared and flexible approach is essential to capturing leads and ensuring strong Q1 results.

With just a couple of months until January, the time to take action is now. Gym operators should begin testing targeted offers, optimizing outreach, and fine-tuning onboarding processes. Building connections with prospective members in advance not only sets the stage for increased sign-ups but also helps gyms hit the ground running in 2025. Scenario planning, personalized marketing, and differentiated value offerings will be key tools in winning over January’s influx of fitness seekers.

To make this preparation easier and more effective, consider leveraging Keepme’s Antares. With 24/7 lead management, personalized follow-ups, and tailored engagement, Keepme can drive conversions and streamline member acquisition, even during peak season.